Americans are still booking summer holidays despite a sharp rise in airfares linked to higher jet fuel costs and growing instability in global energy markets. Airlines are now passing through fuel expenses to consumers after months of absorbing the increases, pushing last-minute travel costs significantly above last year’s levels.
The jump in summer flight prices comes as disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and continued conflict involving Iran place sustained pressure on global fuel supplies. According to data from Hopper Technology Solutions, domestic Memorial Day weekend fares were more than 50% higher than the same period in 2025, even though travel demand has remained broadly stable.
Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper Technology Solutions, said the current increase differs from the short-lived fuel spikes airlines typically manage internally.
“Airlines absorb what they can in their bottom line, and then they pass on what they can’t,” Berg said. “Now the costs are too great. They’re going to have to be passed on.”
Memorial Day bookings are absorbing the sharpest increases
Travellers booking flights close to departure are facing the steepest price rises because those tickets reflect current fuel costs more directly. Airlines pricing flights later in the summer still have some uncertainty around where energy prices may settle, which has softened increases for trips scheduled further out.
Berg said the final two weeks of June and the opening weeks of July are currently the most expensive periods for summer travel. She advised travellers to shift holidays into late August or early September where possible, when pricing pressure may ease slightly.
The impact has been particularly noticeable for spontaneous travel plans. Last-minute fares are reportedly more than $100 higher than comparable bookings during the same period last year.
Berg also pushed back against the common belief that airlines alter fares instantly based on online searches or browser cookies. She explained that carriers update fare filings on scheduled intervals, often once or twice daily, which creates a delay between fuel market changes and ticket pricing.
That lag initially shielded consumers from sudden increases in aviation fuel costs earlier this year. However, as higher fuel prices persisted, airlines gradually adjusted ticket prices across domestic and international routes.
Airlines face a familiar problem with thinner margins
Fuel remains one of the largest operating expenses for airlines, typically accounting for between 15% and 30% of total costs in the United States. The aviation industry has historically struggled to protect profit margins during prolonged oil market disruptions, particularly during peak travel seasons when carriers are reluctant to suppress demand with aggressive fare increases.
The current pressure echoes previous energy-driven airline shocks, including the sharp oil price rises seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Several carriers then introduced fuel surcharges or reduced route capacity to manage operating costs. This summer, airlines appear to be relying more heavily on fare adjustments rather than cutting schedules.
Industry analysts have warned that further disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could intensify pricing pressure globally. According to the International Energy Agency, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the waterway, making it one of the most strategically sensitive shipping corridors in global energy markets.
Despite the higher prices, travel demand has remained resilient. Hopper Technology Solutions data showed Memorial Day weekend airline capacity was broadly unchanged from last year, suggesting consumers continue to prioritise travel spending even as household budgets tighten elsewhere.
That trend reflects broader consumer behaviour patterns seen across the leisure sector over the past two years. Deloitte’s 2025 summer travel outlook found that many households planned to preserve holiday spending while reducing discretionary purchases in categories such as retail goods and home entertainment.
Flexibility may become the defining travel strategy this summer
Travellers willing to adjust schedules, airports, or destinations are likely to find the best opportunities to control costs in the coming months. Berg recommended midweek departures, comparing fares across nearby airports, and considering indirect routes through cheaper European hubs before booking final destinations.
Refundable tickets and “cancel for any reason” protection are also becoming more attractive as travellers contend with ongoing volatility in both energy markets and travel pricing.
For airlines, the coming months will test how far consumers are willing to tolerate rising ticket costs before demand begins to weaken. For now, the industry appears to be benefiting from a public still determined to travel, even if it means cutting back elsewhere.
