Canadian travellers are increasingly avoiding the United States, and the pullback now appears to extend well beyond holidaymakers. New research suggests business leaders and corporate travellers are also reducing trips south of the border as political and trade tensions between the two countries deepen.
A study released by the University of Toronto’s School of Cities found a median 42% year-on-year decline in Canadian visits to major U.S. metropolitan areas. The findings point to a broader shift in cross-border movement that could weigh on airlines, hotels, conference venues and local economies that have historically relied on Canadian spending.
Dallas and Grand Rapids see steep declines in Canadian visits
The drop in travel comes after more than a year of strained relations between Washington and Ottawa. President Donald Trump’s administration imposed sweeping tariffs on Canadian imports in 2025, including a 25% levy on many goods, while repeated comments suggesting Canada should become the “51st state” triggered political backlash north of the border.
Tourism-heavy cities have already felt the impact. Las Vegas recorded roughly 1.2 million Canadian visitors in 2025, down from about 1.4 million a year earlier, according to figures from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. Canadian government data also showed a 25% annual decline in overall visits to the U.S. last year.
The University of Toronto analysis suggests the slowdown is reaching deeper into the business economy. Dallas experienced close to a 50% decline in Canadian visitors compared with the previous year, while Grand Rapids, Michigan, recorded a 53% fall.
Both cities maintain strong commercial ties with Canada. Several major Canadian banks, including Scotiabank and Royal Bank of Canada, have expanded operations in Dallas in recent years. Grand Rapids has longstanding links to Ontario’s automotive manufacturing sector and recently strengthened municipal ties with Vaughan, Ontario through a new sister-city partnership.
Karen Chapple, director of the University of Toronto’s School of Cities and co-author of the study, said the figures indicate more than a downturn in leisure tourism.
“The story these numbers tell us is that it’s not just tourist travel,” Chapple told Fortune. “A lot of it is tourist travel, but there’s other travel that’s hurt as well.”
Corporate travel matters more than leisure spending
The decline in corporate travel could carry broader economic consequences because business visitors typically spend significantly more than leisure tourists. According to the U.S. Travel Association, business trips account for around 20% of overall travel volume but generate roughly 60% of airline and lodging revenue.
Executives travelling for meetings, conferences and client visits generally spend more on premium flights, hotels, restaurants and event spaces. A sustained reduction in those trips could therefore hit urban business districts harder than a slowdown in holiday tourism alone.
Chapple suggested the trend may reflect a wider consumer backlash against the U.S. among Canadians. Many households have already shifted purchasing habits away from American products following the tariff dispute, and some companies may now be reconsidering discretionary travel budgets tied to U.S. operations.
The economic effects are beginning to emerge. Research from the Center for Economic and Policy Research found that U.S. businesses operating in areas heavily dependent on Canadian visitors employed about 6% fewer workers by mid-2025 compared with less exposed markets. The organisation estimated that translated into between 14,000 and 42,000 lost jobs.
Cross-border travel between Canada and the United States has historically ranked among the busiest international corridors globally. Before the pandemic, more than 20 million Canadians visited the U.S. annually, according to Statistics Canada and U.S. government tourism data. Airlines and hospitality groups spent years rebuilding those flows after COVID-19 restrictions eased, making the current downturn particularly concerning for the sector.
Investors remain active despite political tensions
Despite the retreat in travel, Canadian capital has not fully pulled away from the American economy. National Bank of Canada Financial Markets data showed Canadian investors purchased nearly C$60bn in U.S. equities and debt securities between January and May 2025, the largest amount recorded for that period in more than three decades.
That distinction highlights an important divide between financial investment and public sentiment. Canadian pension funds and institutions continue to view U.S. markets as essential investment destinations, even as consumers and executives appear more cautious about physical travel.
The next few quarters may reveal whether the decline reflects temporary political frustration or the start of a more durable shift in North American business relationships. Travel operators, airlines and convention-heavy cities are likely to watch closely for any recovery in Canadian bookings as trade negotiations and diplomatic tensions evolve.
