International shipping authorities are warning that the growth of so-called shadow fleets could divide maritime trade between operators that follow established rules and vessels that operate with far less transparency.
The Consultative Shipping Group, which represents maritime authorities from 18 countries, has called for stronger enforcement and international cooperation as geopolitical conflicts and trade restrictions place increasing pressure on the rules governing commercial shipping. The group says the emerging divide threatens safety, environmental standards and fair competition across an industry central to global commerce.
Shipping Authorities Warn of a Divided Maritime Market
The CSG issued a public statement this week warning that maritime commerce risks developing into two distinct systems, with compliant operators competing against ships that avoid established requirements.
The concern has intensified during the Iran war and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels operating outside conventional regulatory structures have continued moving through sensitive shipping routes, according to the source report, highlighting the difficulty authorities face in enforcing restrictions at sea.
Shadow fleets can include vessels with unclear ownership, questionable flag registrations or limited adherence to international standards. Some ships may also lack insurance arrangements widely recognised within the conventional shipping industry.
CSG chair Brian Wessel told Fortune that such vessels now represent about 20% of the tanker fleet. Their presence creates commercial consequences for legitimate operators that bear the expense of complying with safety, insurance and environmental requirements.
“If you want to transport oil and compete with somebody who doesn’t live up to that, that’s an uneven playing field,” Wessel said.
The risks extend beyond competition. In July, the Caroline Bezengi, a sanctioned tanker linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, began leaking crude near Oman after an explosion the previous month. The vessel was carrying 800,000 barrels of oil, according to the source report.
When vessels have inadequate or unrecognised insurance, governments and local organisations can face greater financial exposure following accidents or pollution incidents.
Why Shadow Fleets Have Become a Global Trade Risk
The problem predates the latest conflict in the Middle East. Sanctions, tariffs and geopolitical disputes have increased incentives for some operators to conceal ownership, change registrations or find alternative ways to move restricted cargo.
That matters because shipping remains fundamental to international commerce. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has estimated that maritime transport carries more than 80% of world merchandise trade by volume.
The scale of that dependence means fragmented maritime standards could have consequences well beyond shipowners and ports. Companies relying on internationally sourced energy, raw materials and manufactured goods can face higher costs when shipping routes become less predictable or compliance risks increase. Insurers, commodity traders and logistics companies also have to price greater uncertainty into their operations.
Recent conflicts have demonstrated how quickly problems at individual maritime chokepoints can spread through supply chains. Disruption in the Red Sea has already forced some commercial vessels onto longer routes, while instability around the Strait of Hormuz carries particular significance because of the waterway’s importance to global energy shipments.
A lasting division between regulated and opaque fleets could add another structural cost. Legitimate operators must maintain vessels, secure recognised insurance and meet international safety and environmental requirements. Competitors that avoid those obligations can potentially operate at lower cost while transferring some of the financial and environmental risk to governments and other parties.
Governments Face a Difficult Enforcement Test
The CSG is calling for greater information sharing among maritime authorities, stronger cooperation between flag and port states and continued political backing for international shipping standards.
Enforcement, however, remains difficult because maritime commerce operates across jurisdictions. Ships can change flags, ownership structures can be complex and national governments do not always share the same geopolitical or commercial priorities.
Wessel said conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, instability in the Red Sea and the growth of shadow shipping collectively indicate that established rules are being challenged more frequently.
The next test will be whether governments can strengthen compliance without creating additional disruption for legitimate trade. For businesses and investors, developments around insurance, vessel registration, sanctions enforcement and key shipping routes will be important signals.
If shadow fleets continue expanding, the issue could move beyond maritime regulation and become a broader question of how much additional risk and cost the global trading system can absorb.
