San Francisco real estate is no longer the top-dollar bet it once was — and that’s exactly why billionaires and CEOs are buying in. With office vacancy rates nearing 35% and tech companies reducing their urban footprints, property values in the city’s commercial core have dropped to decade-lows. For ultra-wealthy investors, the crash looks more like a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
Recently, buyers with big names and deeper pockets — including Stripe cofounder John Collison and a group tied to Salesforce alumni — have quietly snapped up properties in prime locations. The strategy is simple: buy low, wait for the city to rebound.
As seen in Millionaire MNL, high-net-worth players are betting that San Francisco’s innovation engine will turn back on — and when it does, these steep discounts could turn into massive returns.
From tech exodus to investment window
In the past few years, downtown San Francisco has struggled. The pandemic triggered a mass exodus of workers, and many haven’t returned. Tech companies shifted to remote or hybrid models, leaving once-booming towers half-empty. At the same time, safety concerns and political gridlock hurt the city’s public image.
As a result, San Francisco real estate prices — especially for commercial properties — have plunged. According to CBRE, some buildings are trading at 50% below their pre-2020 valuations.
But now, a new wave of private buyers is moving in. Many are venture capitalists, hedge fund managers, or startup founders. They’re buying with long horizons, betting that AI, biotech, and clean tech will once again make San Francisco a global capital of innovation.
Who’s buying, and what are they getting?
Deals are still quiet, but notable buyers include billionaires connected to tech’s biggest exits. One prominent transaction involved a 140,000-square-foot building in SoMa, acquired at a deep discount and reportedly intended for a founder-focused startup hub.
Another deal saw an empty mid-rise office bought by a family office with plans to convert it into private flex-use spaces. The rationale? These buildings may not be viable for traditional tenants now — but in five to ten years, they might be.
San Francisco real estate at the ultra-prime level has also attracted interest from Asia-based buyers looking to diversify into U.S. assets while prices remain depressed.
What makes this downturn different?
While every major city goes through cycles, San Francisco’s downturn is uniquely steep — and uniquely visible. It’s the only major U.S. city where office values are still declining year over year. Yet to buyers with capital and time, that’s part of the appeal.
Some compare this moment to buying Manhattan real estate in the early 1990s or post-crisis Miami in 2010. Risk is high, but so is the upside — if the city recovers.
As mentioned by Millionaire MNL, many investors believe AI startups will spark a new wave of hiring, events, and city life — especially with OpenAI and other major players headquartered nearby.
For now, billionaires are keeping quiet about their blueprints. But their actions say enough: San Francisco real estate may be down, but it’s not out.
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