The world has crossed a major demographic threshold, with people aged 65 and older now accounting for a larger share of the global population than children under five, according to the US Census Bureau.
The shift highlights the accelerating pace of global population ageing and the economic questions that accompany longer lives and lower birth rates. Yet the United States is expected to move in the opposite direction in relative terms. While its own population continues to age, dozens of other countries are projected to age considerably faster over the next several decades.
America Could Drop From 48th to 110th Oldest Country
The Census Bureau reported that the historic crossover occurred in 2025, reflecting demographic changes that governments will increasingly have to incorporate into spending, labour and retirement policies.
The US ranked as the 48th-oldest population among 227 countries in 2025. By 2060, it is projected to fall to 110th place as demographic ageing accelerates elsewhere.
Japan currently has the highest proportion of older residents, with 29.7% of its population aged 65 or above in 2025. Germany and Greece follow at roughly 25%.
That ranking is expected to change substantially by 2060. South Korea is projected to have around 41% of its population aged 65 and over, while Taiwan is expected to approach 40%. Japan, despite continuing to have a large older population, is forecast to move into third place.
Europe is expected to remain the oldest region overall. The share of Europeans aged at least 65 is projected to rise from about 21% in 2025 to 30.8% by 2060.
The shift extends well beyond the oldest developed economies. The Census Bureau said populations aged 85 and over are expected to quadruple between 2025 and 2060 in 160 countries, concentrated largely across Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean.
Longer Lives Put Health and Retirement Under Pressure
The US may age more slowly than many international peers, but that does not remove the economic consequences of an older domestic population.
BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink has previously argued that the US may need to reconsider conventional retirement ages as it seeks to preserve programmes such as Social Security for younger generations. Keeping more people in employment for longer could increase labour-force participation and economic output, but the Census Bureau’s health data complicates that proposition.
In the US, the proportion of life after age 60 spent in full health declined by two percentage points between 2000 and 2019, according to the bureau. Between 2016 and 2019, 73% of Americans over 65 were living with at least two chronic health conditions.
Mobility presents another challenge. In 2018, around 60% of older US adults reported mobility difficulties, compared with roughly 30% of people in the same age group in Switzerland.
Those figures suggest retirement policy cannot be considered solely as a question of life expectancy. If governments expect workers to remain economically active for longer, health outcomes and the physical demands of different occupations will become increasingly important parts of that calculation.
For employers, the demographic shift could also make workforce design a more prominent strategic issue. Companies may need to accommodate a broader range of ages through job design, benefits and working arrangements if older employees remain in the labour market for longer. That is particularly relevant in industries where physical demands make extended careers more difficult.
Healthcare Employment Offers an Early Signal
The economic effects of an older population are already visible in the US labour market. Health and social care has been an important source of employment growth over the past year, with the sector adding an average of 32,000 jobs per month, according to US Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited in the source report.
Demand for healthcare, long-term care and related services could become an increasingly important component of economic activity as the number of older Americans rises, even if the US remains relatively younger than many competing economies.
The broader question for policymakers is therefore not simply how old America becomes, but how healthy and economically active its older population remains. A relative demographic advantage could support the US labour force compared with faster-ageing countries, but only if healthcare capacity, retirement financing and workplace practices adjust alongside longer lifespans.
The next several decades will test that distinction. Countries facing the sharpest increases in older populations will have to finance growing age-related needs with a changing workforce, while the US will confront many of the same pressures at a comparatively slower pace.
