Arthur Hayes is not afraid of bold predictions—or sharp reversals.
The outspoken BitMEX cofounder, who famously forecast Bitcoin’s rise to $1 million in the midst of 2022’s crypto carnage, is once again making waves. This time, he’s doubling down on his belief that Bitcoin will break $200,000 by 2025, all while placing strategic bets on gold and Ethereum—a crypto he admits is “hated” right now, but ripe for a comeback.
Betting on a New Financial Order
In a recent post on his blog CryptoHayes, Hayes laid out a thesis that combines macro pessimism with crypto optimism. “We are at the end of the Western-led financial system as we know it,” he wrote, predicting that central banks will be forced into another era of stimulus, pushing real yields deep into negative territory.
His antidote: hard assets. Namely, Bitcoin, gold, and Ethereum.
“I want to own the best-performing horse in each monetary regime,” Hayes explained. “Bitcoin for the digital age, gold as the OG monetary asset, and ETH for the internet of value.”
The Road to $200K
While Bitcoin continues to flirt with all-time highs in the $60,000–$70,000 range, Hayes believes the next leg will be driven not just by ETF inflows, but by a broader macro breakdown. He predicts that the U.S. will resort to printing money aggressively in response to economic slowdown or geopolitical crisis, supercharging the price of non-sovereign assets.
In that scenario, Bitcoin hits $200,000 “easily,” Hayes argues. “This isn’t just about crypto—it’s about exit ramps from the fiat system.”
Why He’s Holding Gold
It’s not just digital coins in Hayes’ vault. He’s also been accumulating physical gold, which he views as a hedge against chaos—particularly if governments move to crack down on crypto or shut down the digital on-ramps.
“You can’t cancel a gold coin,” he said. “It’s the insurance policy for a world where the state doesn’t want you to exit the system digitally.”
Gold, he notes, has recently outperformed equities and remains a popular trade in emerging markets where distrust of fiat is even more entrenched.
The Case for a ‘Hated’ Ethereum
Among crypto investors, Ethereum is facing a sentiment crisis. Fees are high, layer 2 adoption is fragmented, and critics argue the project is losing mindshare to faster competitors like Solana.
Hayes disagrees.
He believes Ethereum is still the most credible base layer for decentralized finance, with a community and developer ecosystem that outpaces the competition.
“When everyone hates an asset, and it doesn’t go lower—that’s usually your buy signal,” he wrote.
He also pointed to the upcoming Ethereum network upgrades and rising staking yield as structural tailwinds. In the short term, he admits, ETH may continue to lag. But long term? “ETH will outperform once people remember why it matters.”
