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Home ECONOMY

Trump national debt first year back adds $2.25 trillion, watchdog analysis shows

January 21, 2026
in ECONOMY
Trump national debt first year back adds $2.25 trillion, watchdog analysis shows

The U.S. national debt climbed by roughly $2.25 trillion during President Donald Trump’s first year back in the White House, underscoring how rapidly federal borrowing continues to accelerate despite repeated pledges to rein it in. The increase highlights mounting pressure on Washington’s finances at a time when interest costs are surging and markets are paying closer attention to fiscal sustainability.

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Measured over the 12 months surrounding Trump’s return to office, the debt rose from just over $37 trillion to approximately $38.4 trillion, according to calculations shared by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonpartisan group focused on long-term budget stability. On a calendar-year basis, the increase in 2025 was even larger, at about $2.29 trillion.

Borrowing accelerates at historic speed

Budget analysts note that the pace of debt accumulation has quickened markedly. The federal government added close to $72,000 per second to the national debt over the past year, a rate that rivals the fastest growth seen outside the pandemic era. A particularly sharp jump occurred between August and October, when the debt moved from $37 trillion to $38 trillion in just two months, a surge the Peterson Foundation previously described as unprecedented outside emergency spending periods.

Michael Peterson, the foundation’s chief executive, has warned that the scale and speed of borrowing reflect structural imbalances rather than short-term shocks. In practical terms, the government is financing routine operations with increasing reliance on debt, even during periods of economic expansion.

How Trump and Biden compare

Looking across recent administrations provides additional context. Data compiled by the Peterson Foundation show that President Joe Biden recorded the largest single-year debt increase outside the pandemic, with nearly $2.6 trillion added in 2023. Trump, however, still holds the record for the biggest annual rise overall, with roughly $4.6 trillion added in 2020 as Congress approved sweeping relief programs during the COVID crisis.

Together, Trump and Biden account for five of the six highest debt-growth years over the past quarter-century. By comparison, annual debt increases under Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush were significantly smaller, though both governed during the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. While the figures are not adjusted for inflation, analysts agree that the underlying trend points to a sustained step-up in borrowing across administrations.

Interest costs become the budget’s pressure point

The growing debt load is colliding with another challenge, rapidly rising interest expenses. Net interest costs reached about $970 billion in fiscal 2025, and according to the Congressional Budget Office, total interest-related spending exceeded $1 trillion for the first time when all components are included. Projections from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget suggest annual interest costs could remain at or above that level for years.

Trump has argued that higher tariff revenue could help offset these pressures. Treasury data show tariff collections have increased substantially, potentially reaching $300 billion to $400 billion annually. Even so, economists note that this revenue covers only a portion of interest costs and a relatively small share of total federal spending. The CBO has also estimated that the rollback of some proposed tariffs eliminated roughly $800 billion in projected deficit reduction.

Complicating matters further, the administration has floated a plan to distribute a $2,000 annual payment to households funded in part by tariff revenue. Independent estimates suggest such a program could cost around $600 billion per year, potentially widening deficits unless paired with spending cuts or new taxes.

Markets flag fiscal risks

Financial markets are increasingly sensitive to these dynamics. Heavy Treasury issuance has pushed longer-term yields higher, reflecting both monetary conditions and concerns about the volume of U.S. borrowing. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have described the nation’s debt trajectory as a potential vulnerability, warning that it could amplify the impact of economic shocks or geopolitical stress.

While rating agencies have not signaled an immediate threat to U.S. creditworthiness, they have repeatedly highlighted rising deficits and political gridlock as longer-term risks. Polling suggests voters are paying attention, with more than four in five Americans saying the national debt is an important issue, even if consensus on solutions remains elusive.

Trump first entered office promising to eliminate the national debt over time. A decade later, following his return to power, the debt has instead reached record highs. As another year of budget negotiations approaches, the debate is shifting from whether borrowing is rising too quickly to how long the world’s largest economy can sustain its current fiscal path.

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