Typical Swing State Renter Earns 17% Less Than Needed to Afford Typical Apartment—But That’s an Improvement From the Last Presidential Election

• During the last election cycle, the typical swing state renter household earned 21% less than they needed to afford the median priced apartment. 

• Still, many renters feel the rent is “too damn high,” meaning the housing affordability crisis is a key issue for swing state voters deciding this year’s presidential race.

• Arizona has seen a bigger improvement in rental affordability since the last election than any other swing state. Michigan is the only swing state that has seen affordability worsen.

• Pennsylvania renters face the worst rental affordability problem, earning nearly 30% less than they need to afford the typical apartment.

The typical renter household in a swing state earns an estimated $50,267 per year. That’s $10,365 less than the $60,633 a renter must earn to afford rent for the median priced apartment in a swing state.

In other words, the typical swing state renter household earns 17.1% less than they need to afford the typical apartment. That’s a sizable shortfall, but is an improvement from the last U.S. presidential election cycle, when the typical swing state renter household earned 20.6% less ($10,088 less, in dollar terms) than they needed.

It’s also an improvement from last year, when the typical renter household earned 22.1% less ($13,552 less, in dollar terms) than they needed to afford the median priced apartment.

This is based on a Redfin analysis of estimated median incomes for U.S. renter households, and median U.S. apartment asking rents for the three months ending August 31 in 2024, 2023 (which we refer to as a year ago) and 2020 (which we refer to as the last election). We consider an apartment affordable if a renter spends no more than 30% of their income on rent (which is the same as saying their annual income is at least 40 times their monthly rent). We define a “typical renter household” as one making the estimated median income in a swing state.

This report focuses on swing states because voters in those states will decide the winner of the 2024 presidential election, and housing affordability–or lack thereof–is a crucial issue on voters’ minds. We consider this year’s swing states to be Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.  

Rental affordability in swing states has improved because incomes have been rising and rents have been sluggish. The pandemic homebuilding boom boosted apartment supply, putting downward pressure on rents. The $50,267 estimated median renter household income in swing states is up 5.4% from a year ago and up 29.3% from the last election cycle. Meanwhile, asking rents in swing states are down 1% from a year ago, and are up 23.8% from the last election cycle—increasing less than incomes.  Still, many renters struggle to afford their monthly housing costs.

“America’s swing state voters will decide the outcome of the next presidential election based on the candidates’ plans for tackling key issues including the housing affordability crisis,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “While the economy has been improving on paper, that’s not what it feels like for a lot of U.S. families. Many renters—especially young people—still feel the rent is too damn high.”

The typical swing state renter is “rent burdened”—meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on housing—but less so than before. A swing state renter making the median income would now need to spend 36.2% of their income to rent the median priced apartment, down from 38.5% last year and 37.8% during the prior election cycle.

Swing State Rental Affordability Has Improved Most in Arizona

The typical renter household in Arizona earns an estimated $57,961 per year—just 2.6% shy of the $59,520 they need to afford the median priced apartment. That compares with a 12.4% shortfall during the last election cycle. Arizona’s 9.7-percentage-point improvement in affordability is the largest of any swing state. The second largest improvement was in Nevada, where the typical income shortfall decreased to 6.5% from 11.8%. Next came North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin.

Arizona experienced the largest improvement in rental affordability because it saw the largest increase in incomes and the smallest increase in rents. The estimated median income of renter households in Arizona ($57,961) has risen 32.2% since the last election, while the median asking rent ($1,488) has climbed 18.9%. Arizona’s asking rents have fallen 4.6% over the last year alone—the biggest decline of any swing state. Scores of people moved to the southwestern state during the pandemic, causing rents to surge, but prices have since come back down to earth as apartment supply increases and temporary pandemic residents move out.

Michigan Is Only Swing State Where Rental Affordability Has Worsened Since Last Election

Michigan is the outlier in this dataset. It was the only swing state that saw rental affordability worsen. The typical renter household in Michigan earns 16.3% less than they need to afford the median priced apartment—worse than the 11.2% shortfall during the last election. That’s partly because asking rents in Michigan have jumped 12.4% over the last year–more than any other swing state. Rents have been rising in the Midwest, in part because it hasn’t been building as much housing as other regions, but also because it offers relatively affordable housing, which is fueling renter demand.

Pennsylvania Renters Face the Worst Rental Affordability Problem

The typical renter household in Pennsylvania earns an estimated $49,168 per year. That’s 29.6% less than a renter must earn to afford the median priced Pennsylvania apartment—the biggest shortfall of any swing state by far. Pennsylvania also had the largest shortfall during the last election cycle. This is because Pennsylvania has a higher median asking rent ($1,747) than any other swing state, while also having one of the lowest estimated median renter household incomes ($49,168). 

This could mean voters in Pennsylvania will take an especially hard look at how Donald Trump and Kamala Harris plan to tackle the housing affordability crisis. 

The typical renter household in Pennsylvania would now need to spend 42.6% of their income to rent the median priced apartment—a higher share than any other swing state, though down from both a year ago and the prior election.

Methodology

This report is based on a Redfin analysis of rental-market data and incomes for blue (Democrat-leaning), red (Republican-leaning) and swing (could be either Democratic or Republican) states. We consider this year’s swing states to be Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. We define blue states as the remaining states that voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election; red states are defined as the remaining set that voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

We estimated 2023-2024 median renter household incomes using U.S. Census Bureau data from 2022—the most recent full year available—and Atlanta Federal Reserve data on year-to-date wage growth covering workers in the bottom half of the wage distribution.

Median asking rent figures in this report cover newly listed units in apartment buildings with five or more units. The median is calculated based on a rolling three-month period, i.e., the median asking rent for August 2024 covers rentals that were listed on Rent.com and Redfin.com during the three months ending August 31, 2024.

Asking rents reflect the current costs of new leases during each time period. In other words, the amount shown as the median asking rent is not the median of what all renters are paying, but the median asking price of apartments that were available for new renters during the report period.