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Alibaba Faces $100B Rout Risk as China’s E-commerce Turf War Escalates

July 11, 2025
in BUSINESS
Alibaba Faces $100B Rout Risk as China’s E-commerce Turf War Escalates

Qilai Shen—Bloomberg via Getty Images

Once the undisputed titan of China’s digital economy, Alibaba is now battling to avoid an even deeper collapse in market value. After already shedding over $100 billion in capitalization in the past year, the company finds itself squeezed between rising domestic competitors and investor skepticism over its ongoing restructuring.

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With rivals like Pinduoduo (PDD) and Douyin (TikTok’s Chinese counterpart) gaining ground rapidly in e-commerce and social selling, Alibaba’s traditional dominance through Taobao and Tmall is showing cracks. The intensifying turf war could worsen the stock’s decline, which has already erased significant value from one of Asia’s most valuable tech brands.

Market Meltdown and Missed Momentum

Alibaba’s shares have struggled amid a mix of regulatory headwinds, sluggish consumer demand, and internal shakeups. The company’s ambitious restructuring, splitting into six independent business units, was intended to unlock value and increase agility. But so far, investors appear unconvinced.

“Breaking up Alibaba hasn’t created the upside they hoped for,” one analyst told Millionaire MNL. “If anything, it’s made the company look more vulnerable at a time when competitors are scaling faster and more efficiently.”

Since the March 2023 announcement of its historic restructuring, Alibaba’s stock has seen only brief rallies before slipping again, contributing to the massive erosion of market value.

Pinduoduo and Douyin Take the Fight to Alibaba

The competitive threat is not abstract. Pinduoduo has surged in popularity by offering rock-bottom prices through gamified group buying, while Douyin is weaponizing short-form video content to turn creators into sellers—effectively blending entertainment and commerce in a way Alibaba’s platforms haven’t matched.

“Alibaba is stuck in the old model of search-based e-commerce,” said a senior retail strategist. “PDD and Douyin are building ecosystems where discovery and shopping are seamless.”

Recent reports suggest that advertisers are increasingly reallocating budgets from Alibaba to Douyin, further choking off one of Alibaba’s key revenue streams.

Strategic Responses, But Are They Enough?

To counter the onslaught, Alibaba has invested in AI-driven recommendation engines, streamlined logistics through Cainiao, and doubled down on Taobao’s low-price strategy. However, it’s also had to make tough choices, cutting costs, reshuffling executives, and reconsidering IPO plans for some of its units, including Cainiao and Freshippo.

Still, the question lingers: Can Alibaba regain its dominance in an ecosystem that is evolving beyond it?

As mentioned by Millionaire MNL, legacy status can become a liability if agility and innovation are stifled. While Alibaba is far from finished, the risk of a continued rout is real, especially if it fails to recapture user loyalty and investor confidence in the months ahead.

Tags: Alibaba $100 billion routAlibaba restructuringAlibaba stock crashChina e-commerce warsPinduoduo Douyin competition
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